Why Republicans can't win Colorado

On June 30, Colorado votes in its primaries. The governor’s race tops the ballot. Democrats are choosing between U.S. Senator Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser. Republicans pick from state Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer, state Representative Scott Bottoms, and Victor Marx, a newcomer with a large national online audience.¹

The last Republican to hold the governor’s seat was Bill Owens, who served until 2007. It will be an uphill climb for any Republican in a statewide race, despite rising issues of affordability, housing costs, crime, a worsening budget, and homelessness.² Bennet and Weiser are both campaigning on affordability. The question is whether unaffiliated voters buy the idea that more one-party control of the state will lead to a real departure from the status quo.

The math

Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by almost 100,000, roughly 993,000 to 898,000. But independent and other voters make up over 2 million, more than half of the total.³ It wasn’t always like this. In 2016 the parties were nearly even: 33 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat, 35 percent unaffiliated.⁴ Both parties have shrunk since, but Republicans shrank faster, ten points to the Democrats’ seven.

Migration is part of the story. Colorado’s biggest sources of new residents are California, Texas, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. In the most recent IRS data the state gained a net 4,300 households from California alone.⁵ Most of these new voters come from states run by Democrats, and they register unaffiliated or blue. The electorate that elected Bill Owens moved out, and this is who replaced it.

So voter registration favors Democrats, but with 2 million independents, Democrats shouldn’t be invulnerable. So why does it seem that way?

The platform

Part of the answer is what Republicans are selling. Republican candidates have plans for housing, crime, and the budget, but those plans come wrapped in the same pitch the party has run for twenty years: low taxes and opposition to whatever Democrats propose. That pitch was built for an electorate that no longer exists, and it hasn’t won a governor’s race since. The unaffiliated voter who moved here from California in 2021 has never heard a Colorado Republican make an argument aimed at them.

And these voters are winnable. In a November 2025 poll, unaffiliated voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats on crime, 60 percent wanted to keep TABOR, and 52 percent said Colorado is on the wrong track.⁶

The candidates

The other part is who’s selling it. Tina Peters, the former Mesa County clerk, was convicted for tampering with her own county’s election systems. In April, state Representative Brandi Bradley froze the House for fifteen hours by requiring the 661-page budget bill to be read aloud, at a cost of roughly $10,000 to taxpayers, over a grievance with a fellow Republican.⁷ Unaffiliated voters watch all of it. In the same poll, 57 percent of them viewed the Colorado Republican Party unfavorably, and asked which party has become more extreme, 45 percent said Republicans, compared to 36 percent for Democrats.⁶

This primary reflects the same dynamic. Marx and Bottoms would both be underdogs in November, and each has built a campaign around a strong personal following. At the June 2 debate, moderator Kyle Clark pressed Marx on how voters could verify the remarkable life story at the center of his campaign; Marx’s answer left the question open, and the exchange drew wide attention online. Bottoms was pressed on claims he acknowledged he could not fully substantiate.⁸

Kirkmeyer turned in the strongest debate performance. A state senator who spent twenty years as a Weld County commissioner, she laid out a detailed plan for the state and an evident command of how to govern. Yet Marx is outraising her almost five to one, $2.7 million to $566,000.⁹ So far Marx has offered fewer policy specifics than his rivals; one campaign ad pledges to meet the state’s challenges with “optimism, passion, and truth.” And his Republican rivals have said they won’t back him if he wins the nomination.¹⁰

This is why running on the right issues hasn’t been enough. Republican candidates already campaign on affordability and crime, and they keep losing statewide anyway. Unaffiliated voters haven’t found the platform compelling, and they’ve been skeptical of the candidates carrying it.

What comes next

Trump represented something new: a simple message of America First, immigration reductions, industrialist trade policy, and a foreign policy focused on American interests. But more Republicans are feeling that what they were promised isn’t being realized. The President’s approval rating is at the low point of his term, worst among Gen Z, driven in large part by the handling of the Iran war.¹¹ That will stain 2028 presidential hopefuls like J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio because of their proximity to the President.

June 30 won’t decide much about November. It will show whether Republican primary voters reward the candidate who can govern or the one with the biggest audience. Either way, the party will not win this state by waiting for Democrats to fail. Someone has to give two million unaffiliated voters a reason to vote for something else.

Notes

Notes

1. Colorado Public Radio, “Voter guide for Colorado’s gubernatorial primary election,” May 29, 2026. ↩

2. Common Sense Institute, “Colorado Housing Affordability Report: June 2025 Update,” June 2025; Common Sense Institute, “Colorado Crime Update,” 2026. ↩

3. Colorado Secretary of State voter registration statistics, June 2026, via Independent Voter Project. ↩

4. Colorado Springs Gazette, “Unaffiliated voters have a growing influence on Colorado elections, research shows,” June 11, 2026. ↩

5. Namaqua Institute analysis of IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state migration data, 2015-2023. Net household flows into Colorado, 2022-23: California +4,345, Texas +2,648, Illinois +1,488, New York +777, New Jersey +544. ↩

6. Keating Research poll for Let Colorado Vote, November 10-17, 2025, of 1,210 active Colorado voters, including 600 unaffiliated voters. Reported in Robert Tann, “Colorado’s unaffiliated voters, who make up half of the electorate, hold dim view of both major parties, poll finds,” Summit Daily, December 15, 2025. ↩ ↩²

7. The Colorado Sun, “Republican state representative’s demand that Colorado’s budget bill be read aloud cost taxpayers upwards of $10K,” April 14, 2026. ↩

8. Colorado Public Radio, “GOP primary debate goes off the rails,” June 3, 2026. ↩

9. Colorado Politics, “Victor Marx, Phil Weiser lead Colorado gubernatorial fundraising,” May 7, 2026. ↩

10. Colorado Politics, “Republicans Kirkmeyer, Bottoms say they won’t back Marx if he wins Colorado’s gubernatorial primary,” May 27, 2026. ↩

11. Economist/YouGov Poll, “A new low for Trump approval,” June 5-8, 2026. ↩